The new report, The World’s Industrial Transformation, contends that financial crisis and recession mean a long period of tepid growth is likely in the West, while developing countries such as China – now the world’s largest manufacturer – and India, should continue to grow at a healthy rate, partly owing to the emergence of a huge middle class that will need consumer goods and vast infrastructure investments.
The report assesses which industries will change the global manufacturing landscape and drive future growth.
Key findings include:
- The aircraft industry should grow quickly, driven by growing demand for air travel. Production will continue to be dominated by the United States and Europe, at least until 2020, with smaller contributions from Brazil (Embraer) and Canada (Bombardier). But China will challenge the Boeing/Airbus duopoly by 2020.
- The world market for cars will continue to shift in favour of developing countries. The developed world is saturated, and growth there will come from technical advances in fuel use and in safety. By contrast, car ownership in the developing world will soar, and production will increasingly be concentrated in these markets. China produced more vehicles in 2011 than the United States and Japan combined.
- Pharmaceuticals demand will be buoyant, though there will be some brake on supply in countries where healthcare is public and government budgets remain under pressure. Recent basic scientific breakthroughs in genomics should produce an increasing flow of new drugs over the next 10 years.
This material is protected by copyright Ken Hurst 2013.